The most aggressive pressing sides in Europe have spent the summer moving backwards, and the reasoning is sound.
For five seasons the trend was one-directional: higher lines, more aggressive triggers, more goals scored from turnovers in the final third. That trend has stalled, and in some cases reversed. The sides that pressed hardest last season have started this one defending six to eight metres deeper on average, without any obvious change in personnel.
Why it stopped working
The explanation is straightforward once you watch the transitions. A high line is only as good as the first press, and opponents have spent two years learning to bypass the first press with a single diagonal. When that pass lands, the space behind is enormous and the defensive recovery runs are the longest in the game. Sides that pressed high gave up more high-quality chances than the turnovers created were worth.
Compression, not retreat
Lowering the line is not passivity. It compresses the space between defence and midfield, which makes the counter-press shorter and the recovery runs survivable. What the side loses in turnovers near the opponent’s box it gains in not conceding two-on-twos from its own halfway line. On current evidence the trade is favourable, and more sides are making it.
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